Uncertainty Used As A Weapon
Uncertainty Used As A Weapon
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Apparently, I’ve been afflicted with something called Cognitive Dissonance. The onset of my disorder was brought about by my unholy belief in what denialists label “Anthropogenic Global Warming” – the “theory” that global warming is real and we humans are the predominate cause.
A little history about my cognitive dissonance: Sometime ago, I submitted a column to my local paper about global warming. I knew it would generate a lot of nastiness and I wasn’t disappointed. Several people wrote me. The responses were predictable. I even made it to the Internet where a denialist website provided the above diagnosis.
From all the way across the “Pond”, two English gentlemen took the time to write me and call me an idiot (I never realized that the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin and San Bernardino Sun were so widely read). Thanks to these twits I now view our Revolution in a whole new light. All this time I thought the dustup was about self-determination. The cause of the revolt was apparently a lot more basic. Those pompous Brits were just seriously annoying.
A Libertarian (aka, rugged individualist) feigned neutrality on the issue and then proceeded to bate me with denialist junk science. Then, there were the locals who cited TV weathermen and railed against Al Gore. An on and on it went.
The common theme of their arguments is the UNCERTAINTY of the science (Well, we’re still good at manufacturing something). You see, scientists cannot tell us with absolute certainty that the planet is warming and it’s mainly our fault. Denialists also love to attack the use of the word – CONSENSUS – as if it means that every scientist in every discipline is in complete lockstep with one another.
The science of climate change is filled with vagaries to be sure but the number of scientists who dispute “anthropogenic” climate change is small. A significant number of prominent deniers are laissez-faire economists who are seldom right about anything – as recent economic events have proven.
Besides, science is not about certainty. It’s about probability. Theoretically, quantum physics tells us that it is possible for your body to pass through a solid wall without any damage to yourself or the wall. But if you try it you better be prepared to take a trip to the Emergency Room for the probability is infinitesimally small. On the other hand, when the weatherman tells you there’s a 70% chance of rain tomorrow, be prepared to spend a lot of quality time on the freeway.
Most climate reports are now talking about 90% certainty. That’s about as definitive as you are going to get. The number of scientists and scientific academies who consider the problem real and who are advocating significant policy changes to combat global warming is also overwhelming. That’s as close to a consensus as you are going to get.
The uncertainty game is used like a weapon by the denialist lobby. Unfortunately, it’s been very effective. Polls found that only 42% of Americans thought global warming was a serious concern down from 47% in 2006.
More recent opinion polls conducted in the United States point to an upward trend in people who believe that global warming is not caused by human activity. Polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports found that between April and December, 2008 the number of respondents who attributed global warming to “long term planetary trends” and not human activity increased from 34 percent to 43 percent.
Yet another tactical game I’ve observed is to attack the messenger and who better than Al Gore; the most reviled, maligned, and misquoted LIBERAL of all time.
Denialists are quick to point out that Al Gore is not a good example. He uses a lot of energy and has a very large carbon footprint. They simply can’t accept the irony of a rich guy who lives in a big house and who flies in airplanes. How can anyone who doesn’t practice what he preaches be credible? All his efforts to raise awareness are suspect.
If Aristotle were alive today he would call this line of reasoning the “So’s Your Mother” argument. Substance matters little. What matters is destroying the message and those who deliver it.
We will never achieve certainty and regardless of who steps forward to lead on this life-changing (no, planet-changing) issue, he or she will be savagely lambasted. A lot is at stake after all, the American way-of-life.
Denialists have been very effective in planting seeds of doubt with their junk science and religious fervor. How do they do it? They continuously troll the Internet for articles and insert their bonehead theories and contrarian viewpoints. They also have hundreds if not thousands of websites and blogs. And since most Americans now get their “information” from the web, their campaign to discredit the “Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory” (as they call it) has been wildly successful. People who believe that the climate change we are witnessing is human induced are now in the minority. This is bad news for policy makers and environmentalists who actually want to do something about this global crisis.
Copyright © 2009 Frank Schiavone
